Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x872c…e45f world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 25L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% +$5
other 18% +$6
sports 16% $0
politics 15% $0
crypto 12% +$1
finance 5% −$3
economics 4% $0
weather 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 10% -9.9%
≤90d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 10% -9.9%
all 35 +5.5% -4.5% 29% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 6% -9.0%
10% -13.7% 3% -17.7%
15% -22.0% 3% -25.7%
20% -29.7% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage282d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $54 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $43 −$3 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $9 +$2 +21%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $5 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 29 $31 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Oct 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 18 $36 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 12 $3 +$6 +214%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $1 $0 -24%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 13 $4 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Se Sep 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Sep 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 09 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $27 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $4 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $43 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $43 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $3 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $39 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $42 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $12 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 94¢ $11 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $16 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $12 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.24 · official $30.24 (match) · 155 history records