Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

87 0x8729…c7fb other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$5 (+32%) realized +$6 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +233% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +190% what you keep after slip

Net edge+190%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown80%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day5.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+201.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+233.3%	+201.6%	50%	50%	+73.0%
≤30d	6	+233.3%	+201.6%	50%	50%	+73.0%
≤90d	6	+233.3%	+201.6%	50%	50%	+73.0%
all	6	+233.3%	+201.6%	50%	50%	+73.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+201.6%	50%	+73.0%
10%	+172.7%	50%	+56.4%
15%	+146.4%	50%	+41.3%
20%	+122.2%	50%	+27.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 71% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +91% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +233% · $-wt +91% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized+$6

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day5.3

Drawdown80%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	No	1¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-96%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$1	+$4	+343%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	+$2	+227%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$1	+$14	+1130%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$3	−$3	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	21¢	$2	18m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5	38m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	41¢	$3	2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	BUY No	1¢	$1	3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1	3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	6h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$1	6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$5	8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$1	8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	45¢	$3	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.99 · official $1.99 (match) · 11 history records