Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8728…8c83 crypto 44 markets active 11h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,384 (+1%) realized +$1,384 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%43W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$4,558per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$495
7 days+$1,363
14 days+$1,377
30 days+$1,377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$1,319
crypto 26% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 5 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.5%
all 44 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 0% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,515) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$151 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.14 per $1 lost it wins $10.14
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,384
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses43 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage135d
Avg bet$4,558
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 17 $4,564 +$48 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $40,589 +$447 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $79,752 +$868 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $398 +$14 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 19? May 19 $398 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 14? May 14 $418 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 6? May 06 $417 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 30? May 04 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 30? May 04 $292 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 15? Apr 28 $416 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on April 2? Apr 13 $312 +$1 +0%
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? Mar 09 $559 −$151 -27%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 08 $557 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 28? Feb 25 $403 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 27? Feb 25 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 27? Feb 25 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 26? Feb 24 $267 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 26? Feb 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 26? Feb 24 $227 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 22? Feb 24 $218 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 23? Feb 24 $334 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 21 $21,798 +$93 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 20? Feb 21 $1,775 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on February 17? Feb 18 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 17? Feb 18 $521 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 17? Feb 18 $1,039 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 11? Feb 14 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 12? Feb 14 $412 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? Feb 14 $1,037 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 12? Feb 14 $1,056 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 13 Feb 14 $1,817 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on February 12? Feb 14 $3,990 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 12 Feb 12 $1,815 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on February 10? Feb 11 $1,813 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 9? Feb 10 $275 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 9? Feb 10 $1,356 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 7? Feb 10 $2,515 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 8? Feb 10 $2,640 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 8? Feb 07 $4,723 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on February 8? Feb 07 $3,868 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $8,582 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on February 3? Feb 04 $1,266 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on February 3? Feb 04 $1,888 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on February 3? Feb 04 $5,420 +$5 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4,612 10h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $7,161 32h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $9,990 32h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $13,315 32h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $4,564 39h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6,006 41h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,000 41h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,525 42h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $137 42h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,902 42h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 98¢ $42 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $35,243 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $270 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $315 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $989 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $494 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $90 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $19 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $46 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $96 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $12 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $19 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $21 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 98¢ $42 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 98¢ $98 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 98¢ $2,024 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 98¢ $49 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 98¢ $212 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 98¢ $507 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records