Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8728…0882 sports 879 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,523 (+5%) realized +$680 · open +$1,843
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%226W / 303L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day90.2pace
Fees−$335est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$19,216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$505
7 days−$936
14 days+$1,139
30 days+$1,204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$359
other 27% +$1,302
politics 23% +$2,087
world 2% −$687
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 -17.3% -25.1% 40% 28% -17.5%
≤30d 529 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 37% -6.3%
≤90d 529 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 37% -6.3%
all 529 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 37% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 37% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 31% -15.3%
15% -26.0% 26% -23.5%
20% -33.2% 22% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$37 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$19,216
Realized+$680
Unrealized+$1,843
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses226 / 303
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$335
Open positions474
Markets (closed)529 / 879
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day90.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 474 History 529 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 92¢ $2,459 $3,447 +$988 (+40%)
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 67¢ 62¢ $675 $625 −$50 (-7%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 68¢ $350 $618 +$269 (+77%)
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $494 $504 +$10 (+2%)
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 47¢ 90¢ $251 $475 +$224 (+89%)
Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $373 $429 +$56 (+15%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $352 $355 +$3 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 36¢ 35¢ $357 $350 −$7 (-2%)
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? No 82¢ 92¢ $309 $345 +$36 (+12%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 82¢ 90¢ $282 $312 +$31 (+11%)
Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $270 $294 +$24 (+9%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 64¢ 63¢ $281 $277 −$4 (-1%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 22¢ $145 $272 +$127 (+88%)
Will Latonya Reeves be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? No 90¢ 91¢ $261 $264 +$3 (+1%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 87¢ 94¢ $239 $257 +$18 (+7%)
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? No 86¢ 86¢ $245 $247 +$2 (+1%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 51¢ 52¢ $230 $236 +$7 (+3%)
Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 94¢ $198 $228 +$30 (+15%)
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $217 $220 +$4 (+2%)
Will Angus King III win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 91¢ 100¢ $189 $208 +$18 (+10%)
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $227 $203 −$24 (-11%)
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? No 80¢ 88¢ $180 $198 +$19 (+10%)
Will Shelley Hughes advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No 89¢ 95¢ $185 $197 +$12 (+7%)
Norway leading at halftime? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $122 $196 +$74 (+61%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-04 House seat? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $176 $187 +$11 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $217 +$31 +14%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $108 +$15 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 +$12 +46%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $9 +$3 +38%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $27 +$58 +216%
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $37 +$2 +5%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $16 +$3 +19%
Egypt to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win the World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$6 +71%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $135 −$2 -1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $24 −$20 -82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $115 +$5 +4%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $123 −$123 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $9 $0 -5%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jack Eichel win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Frederik Andersen win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $1 $0 -66%
Will Nikolaj Ehlers win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $96 +$10 +10%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Pavel Dorofeyev win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 24m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 29m
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $0 29m
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 75¢ $95 32m
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $2 32m
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $0 35m
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $0 43m
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 58¢ $20 43m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 46m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 7¢ $0 49m
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 47¢ $60 51m
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 52m
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? SELL No 86¢ $6 52m
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $0 54m
Will Germany be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $105 55m
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 1h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL Yes 71¢ $39 1h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL Yes 71¢ $36 1h
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $0 1h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $9 1h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY No 85¢ $26 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 65¢ $2 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 46¢ $32 1h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $108 1h
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $1 1h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL Yes 75¢ $26 1h
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $0 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 46¢ $59 1h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 1h
Will the Republican Party win the FL-15 House seat? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,215.86 · official $19,200.53 (match) · 3500 history records