Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

87
0x8725…eb10
sports · 327 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$7,931 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11,155 · open −$3,542
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20,928
Realized+$11,155
Unrealized−$3,542
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses136 / 414
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$2,210
Open positions92
Markets (closed)550 / 327
History coverage12d
Avg bet$519
Trades / day272.5
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 92 History 550 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52,818
7 days−$26,512
14 days+$11,156
30 days+$11,156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 42¢ 82¢ $743 $1,447 +$703 (+95%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 68¢ $1,329 $1,246 −$83 (-6%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 72¢ $1,210 $1,194 −$16 (-1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $1,164 $1,168 +$3 (+0%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $1,310 $1,135 −$175 (-13%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? No 73¢ 68¢ $1,166 $1,090 −$76 (-6%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 22¢ 15¢ $1,591 $1,090 −$501 (-32%)
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 93¢ 93¢ $1,005 $1,010 +$5 (+0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $938 $984 +$46 (+5%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 77¢ 66¢ $1,133 $980 −$152 (-13%)
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 79¢ 76¢ $726 $690 −$36 (-5%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $683 $666 −$17 (-2%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 88¢ $478 $486 +$8 (+2%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 40¢ 100¢ $193 $478 +$285 (+148%)
Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A? No 52¢ 68¢ $355 $461 +$106 (+30%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 95¢ $437 $452 +$15 (+4%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $447 $424 −$23 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 27¢ 28¢ $368 $370 +$2 (+0%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $387 $362 −$24 (-6%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? No 79¢ 74¢ $360 $335 −$25 (-7%)
Will T1 make a roster change before July? No 96¢ 95¢ $324 $321 −$3 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $332 $315 −$17 (-5%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 16¢ $248 $260 +$13 (+5%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $254 $256 +$2 (+1%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $237 $241 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Cowboys (-7.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-24? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Liquid - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Oilers vs. Capitals Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Washington Commanders be the first team to reach 100 total po Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2025-09-17? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $723 −$723 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic (BO3) Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Valencia vs. BC Dubai Jun 13 $142 −$142 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 50.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Pisa SC (-0.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Valorant: Xipto GC vs Karmine Corp GC (BO3) Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2025-10-26? Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: JDG vs AL Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Chargers (-2.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $489 −$489 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-8.5) Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Lightning vs. Red Wings Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Canucks vs. Kraken Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by September 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5 Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Islanders vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) Jun 13 $245 −$245 -100%
Spread: Heat (-6.5) Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Club León FC (-0.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Utah State Aggies vs. Air Force Falcons Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PVISION win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament? Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Blues vs. Sabres Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 13 $145 −$145 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Map Handicap: Gen.G (-1.5) vs VARREL (+1.5) Jun 13 $267 −$267 -100%
US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Panthers vs. Jaguars Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Jun 13 $613 −$613 -100%
Game Handicap: MVU (-1.5) vs Apex Mission Impossible (+1.5) Jun 13 $280 −$280 -100%
Hawks vs. Nets Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Stars Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% +$50,286
other 17% +$12,520
world 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 18¢ $10 0m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $40 3m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 3m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 73¢ $13 4m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 73¢ $35 6m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $26 7m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 74¢ $10 8m
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $33 11m
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $8 11m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 13m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $8 18m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $17 18m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $1 18m
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 18¢ $1 19m
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 18¢ $4 19m
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 18¢ $4 19m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $2 19m
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 22¢ $11 21m
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 26¢ $8 23m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $16 23m
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 29¢ $1 23m
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY T1 75¢ $50 24m
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 29¢ $2 26m
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 29¢ $2 27m
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 29¢ $1 27m
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 29¢ $16 27m
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas make a roster change before July? SELL No 58¢ $1 28m
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 29¢ $2 28m
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 29¢ $2 28m
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 28¢ $13 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-48.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 484 -59.8% -63.7% 16% 16% -34.4%
≤30d 550 -42.7% -48.2% 25% 24% -3.1%
≤90d 550 -42.7% -48.2% 25% 24% -3.1%
all 550 -42.7% -48.2% 25% 24% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover272.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.2% 24% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -53.2% 23% -12.3%
15% -57.7% 21% -20.8%
20% -61.8% 19% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,928.36 · official $20,928.60 (match) · 3500 history records