Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:32:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8721…8484 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$168 (-40%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%8W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$89
sports 1% +$19
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -21.5% -29.0% 29% 25% -25.5%
≤30d 28 -21.5% -29.0% 29% 25% -25.5%
≤90d 28 -21.5% -29.0% 29% 25% -25.5%
all 28 -21.5% -29.0% 29% 25% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.0% 25% -25.5%
10% ← realistic here -35.8% 25% -32.6%
15% -42.0% 25% -39.1%
20% -47.7% 25% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses8 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $62 +$86 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$57 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $5 +$19 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$14 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 15h
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 19¢ $24 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $15 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.29 · official $149.29 (match) · 65 history records