Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:17:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8721…5a7b crypto 786 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$634 (-9%) realized −$634 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate55%428W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day105.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$58
14 days−$162
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$130
sports 15% −$85
other 1% −$7
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 341 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 27% -11.9%
≤30d 784 -5.6% -14.6% 55% 23% -12.4%
≤90d 784 -5.6% -14.6% 55% 23% -12.4%
all 784 -5.6% -14.6% 55% 23% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 23% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 16% -20.8%
15% -30.3% 13% -28.4%
20% -37.1% 10% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$634
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses428 / 356
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)784 / 786
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day105.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 784 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 32¢ 48¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+52%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 67¢ 34¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +172%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$9 +172%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 +$30 +1352%
ITF Zagreb: Elina Avanesyan vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 5¢ $2 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 67¢ $5 1h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 6¢ $3 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 85¢ $5 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $5 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 6¢ $3 8h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $5 9h
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 41¢ $5 10h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 32¢ $5 10h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli BUY Franco Roncadelli 5¢ $2 13h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 36¢ $5 14h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Magdalena Frech 4¢ $2 16h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Harry Wendelken 35¢ $5 16h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Tatjana Maria 84¢ $5 17h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 64¢ $5 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 23h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 93¢ $5 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 23h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 86¢ $5 25h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 88¢ $5 25h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 25h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 25h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 25h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 27h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 14¢ $5 27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 27h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $5 27h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 14¢ $5 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 45¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.17 · official $10.17 (match) · 3500 history records