Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
87 0x871f…5322 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$15
other 15% +$2
politics 11% $0
finance 5% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 +5.0% -5.0% 33% 11% -6.2%
≤90d 11 +4.2% -5.7% 36% 9% -6.6%
all 31 +1.8% -7.9% 45% 3% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 3% -7.6%
10% -16.7% 3% -16.5%
15% -24.7% 3% -24.5%
20% -32.1% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.02 per $1 lost it wins $8.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage471d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $63 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $18 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $33 +$15 +45%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $51 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $53 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $54 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $34 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $26 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 20 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Liberal Party win between 47% and 50% of the vote in the 2025 Apr 29 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 28 $2 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Seong-min be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 06 $17 −$1 -4%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Apr 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will another agency be most efficient on March 31? Mar 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $16 $0 +2%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $14 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $49 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $15 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $18 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $23 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $4 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $13 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $35 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $17 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $34 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $25 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $14 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $9 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $48 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $53 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $54 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $13 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records