Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x871e…d944 world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$6
politics 17% +$1
other 8% $0
finance 8% $0
sports 7% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 6 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 17% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 30% 10% -10.8%
all 27 -1.6% -10.9% 48% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 4% -10.3%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage470d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $41 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 +12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $45 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $40 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $41 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $45 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $41 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $52 −$6 -12%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 05 $12 $0 +2%
Will Antonio Saravia win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between Jun 02 $15 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March? Mar 29 $15 $0 +1%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31? Mar 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $2 $0 +7%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $2 −$1 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $42 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $22 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $20 6h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $4 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $3 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $35 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $10 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $45 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $41 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $41 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $40 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $40 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $41 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $41 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 30d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $41 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $4 31d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $31 31d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $6 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 35¢ $45 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 40¢ $52 32d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 98¢ $1 368d
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? SELL Yes $0 382d
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? SELL Yes $0 382d
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? SELL Yes $0 382d
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? SELL Yes $0 382d
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after SELL Yes 91¢ $7 383d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records