Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8718…5040 sports 528 markets active 11h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$192,616 (-10%) realized −$192,616 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate69%364W / 164L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,746per market
Trades / day42.8pace
Fees−$11,356est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,822
7 days+$16,486
14 days−$141,648
30 days−$112,112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$133,221
other 4% +$1,306
crypto 1% +$1,359
politics 0% +$492
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +15.6% +4.6% 68% 62% -1.3%
≤30d 252 -13.4% -21.7% 56% 50% -24.1%
≤90d 528 -2.4% -11.7% 69% 58% -15.6%
all 528 -2.4% -11.7% 69% 58% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 58% -15.6%
10% -20.1% 29% -23.6%
15% ← realistic here -27.9% 18% -31.0%
20% -34.9% 12% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$5,019) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$881 vs −$3,086 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$192,616
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses364 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$11,356
Open positions0
Markets (closed)528 / 528
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$3,746
Trades / day42.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 528 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $2,280 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $180 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5) Jun 22 $2,987 −$2,987 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5,013 −$5,013 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $2,363 −$2,363 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1,006 +$238 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $181 +$219 +121%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,778 +$322 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $240 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5,005 −$2,610 -52%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,309 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $5,025 +$999 +20%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $3,016 +$642 +21%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $5,037 $0 +0%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $5,025 +$992 +20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $5,030 +$1,215 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,019 +$922 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2,010 +$399 +20%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $612 +$1,057 +173%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5,025 −$786 -16%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5,019 +$709 +14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5,007 +$222 +4%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $512 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2,020 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,816 +$762 +42%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $9,964 +$636 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $5,340 +$654 +12%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $895 −$719 -80%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $3,017 +$687 +23%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Ziga Sesko Jun 20 $8,725 +$548 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,527 +$1,098 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $3,032 +$1,586 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $3,153 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $9,540 +$1,507 +16%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $7,548 +$1,986 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,412 +$479 +20%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,012 +$655 +65%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $5,622 +$816 +14%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $1,710 +$413 +24%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $2,989 +$472 +16%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $891 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $2,021 +$612 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $470 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $2,029 +$80 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $207 +$189 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $210 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $347 $0 +0%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $4,581 +$1,183 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $3,825 +$670 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $3,018 +$728 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 60¢ $2,242 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 60¢ $39 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $70 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $181 18h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1,006 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,101 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,778 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $19 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $19 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $19 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $18 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records