Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8718…0fc9 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-35%) realized −$23 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$19
sports 29% +$11
crypto 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-69.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -65.8% -69.0% 0% 0% -62.6%
≤30d 6 -65.8% -69.0% 0% 0% -62.6%
≤90d 6 -65.8% -69.0% 0% 0% -62.6%
all 6 -65.8% -69.0% 0% 0% -62.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.0% 0% -62.6%
10% -72.0% 0% -66.2%
15% -74.7% 0% -69.4%
20% -77.2% 0% -72.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 27¢ 72¢ $8 $21 +$13 (+165%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists Yes 33¢ 30¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals Jun 15 $8 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -39%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 −$1 -10%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals SELL Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 9¢ $1 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $8 2h
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $8 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $8 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $9 2h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.89 · official $35.89 (match) · 12 history records