Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8718…d6dd politics 12 markets active 4h ago coverage 67d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$8,305 (+28%) realized +$19,686 · open −$11,381
Gross ROI / mkt +175% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +130% what you keep after slip
Net edge+130%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$2,466per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,539now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% +$1,705
finance 2% −$503
world 0% −$56
other 0% +$357
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+149.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +21.2% +9.6% 33% 33% +65.5%
≤90d 11 +175.2% +149.0% 36% 36% +64.6%
all 11 +175.2% +149.0% 36% 36% +64.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +149.0% 36% +64.6%
10% +125.2% 36% +48.9%
15% +103.4% 27% +34.5%
20% +83.5% 27% +21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +82% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +175% · $-wt +82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
37.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,037 vs −$1,038 · ×4.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$1,539
Realized+$19,686
Unrealized−$11,381
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage67d
Avg bet$2,466
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes $12,919 $1,539 −$11,381 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 05 $279 −$229 -82%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -18%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $9 −$6 -69%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $137 −$56 -41%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 01 $2,071 +$5,052 +244%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $4,625 +$14,276 +309%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the f May 31 $216 −$105 -48%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $7,184 −$6,594 -92%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 25 $1,562 +$456 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 20 $279 −$274 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $20 +$364 +1837%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $9 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $112 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $146 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $5 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $19 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $3 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $11 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $30 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $27 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $142 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $142 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $142 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $45 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 17¢ $357 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $225 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $67 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $95 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $62 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $43 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $155 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,538.52 · official $1,538.52 (match) · 554 history records