Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8715…61b4 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$2
world 41% +$1
politics 10% −$2
tech 4% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +12.5% +1.8% 100% 100% +1.8%
≤30d 9 +1.4% -8.3% 44% 11% -9.1%
≤90d 9 +1.4% -8.3% 44% 11% -9.1%
all 35 -6.0% -14.9% 54% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 6% -9.4%
10% -23.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -30.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage449d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 67¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $75 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $52 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $57 +$3 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 28 $9 $0 -5%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $4 −$2 -46%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on June 3? Jun 03 $9 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 01 $11 $0 -1%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 French Open? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? May 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 28 $2 $0 -9%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec May 28 $8 $0 +3%
Will Francesco Acerbi be named the Champions League Final man of the m May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ashwin Adhin be the next president of Suriname after the election May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? May 25 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend? Apr 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $22 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $22 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $36 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $6 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $6 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $25 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 29¢ $9 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 29¢ $16 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $37 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $38 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $19 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.52 · official $37.52 (match) · 109 history records