Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8713…1cd9 weather 138 markets active 3h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+1%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate89%122W / 15L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day88.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$15
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -1.5% -10.9% 84% 3% -9.1%
≤30d 137 -1.3% -10.7% 89% 2% -8.8%
≤90d 137 -1.3% -10.7% 89% 2% -8.8%
all 137 -1.3% -10.7% 89% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 2% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 0% -17.5%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.5%
20% -34.2% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses122 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage14d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day88.6
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $32 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $111 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $57 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $55 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $63 −$7 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $14 −$4 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $176 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $94 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $212 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $155 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $67 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $45 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $38 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $51 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $39 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $9 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $6 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.71 · official $3.71 (match) · 1357 history records