Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:47:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8712…d4c1 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$58 (+2%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$951
7 days−$953
14 days−$870
30 days−$870
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$287
other 21% −$583
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -80.8% -82.6% 14% 14% -44.3%
≤30d 11 -31.6% -38.1% 27% 27% -40.4%
≤90d 11 -31.6% -38.1% 27% 27% -40.4%
all 11 -31.6% -38.1% 27% 27% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 27% -40.4%
10% -44.0% 18% -46.1%
15% -49.4% 9% -51.3%
20% -54.4% 9% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$165 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage12d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $450 −$30 -7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $585 −$550 -94%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $640 −$631 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $1,161 +$331 +28%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $49 −$48 -97%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$116 +402%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 45m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL No 95¢ $1,877 46m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 17¢ $113 52m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 18¢ $18 52m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 19¢ $0 54m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 19¢ $27 54m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 19¢ $5 54m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 19¢ $6 54m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 19¢ $0 54m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 20¢ $45 54m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 25¢ $204 55m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 2¢ $35 58m
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 16¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 16¢ $19 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 16¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 18¢ $90 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 20¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 20¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 20¢ $25 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 20¢ $0 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 20¢ $0 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 20¢ $7 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 20¢ $26 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 82¢ $1,302 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 82¢ $190 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 8¢ $49 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 30¢ $459 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 65¢ $394 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $184 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records