Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8711…d2d0 sports 1363 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$202 (-1%) realized −$618 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%651W / 711L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$270est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days−$3,737
14 days−$3,024
30 days−$2,373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$289
other 9% −$93
crypto 8% −$210
world 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 504 -70.6% -73.4% 13% 12% -48.5%
≤30d 904 -29.8% -36.5% 37% 34% -21.9%
≤90d 1215 -11.6% -20.0% 46% 43% -14.2%
all 1362 -4.8% -13.9% 48% 44% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 44% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 38% -20.0%
15% -29.6% 32% -27.8%
20% -36.5% 25% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$618
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses651 / 711
Est. fees paid−$270
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1362 / 1363
History coverage146d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1362 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Carolina Alves 54¢ 48¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Zdenek Kolar 64¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Ilkley: Kayla Day vs Mary Stoiana Kayla Day 24¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Anna Bondar 38¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Pedro Martinez 50¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
ITF Hurghada: Aya El Sayed vs Sara Milanese Aya El Sayed 65¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Eduardo Ribeiro 74¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Marina Bassols Ribera 58¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
ITF Casablanca: Yasmine Kabbaj vs Ekaterina Perelygina Yasmine Kabbaj 56¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp Sandro Kopp 54¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
ITF Wichita: Blake Ellis vs Sebastian Gorzny Blake Ellis 42¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Lucia Bronzetti 23¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Alex de Minaur 32¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ilkley: Alina Korneeva vs Celine Naef Alina Korneeva 36¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Miguel Damas 23¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler McCartney Kessler 76¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Alvaro Guillen Meza 44¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 51¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
ITF Tokyo: Colin Sinclair vs Jumpei Yamasaki Colin Sinclair 63¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Liudmila Samsonova 26¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic Antonia Ruzic 14¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Janice Tjen 41¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Tucuman: Maximo Zeitune vs Arklon Del Pino Maximo Zeitune 51¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Elise Mertens 59¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Henrique Rocha 52¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $18 −$7 -38%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $10 +$13 +127%
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $7 +$4 +50%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Stefano D'agostino Jun 14 $17 −$3 -20%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
ITF Madrid: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Briyana Ivanova Jun 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $83 −$4 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp Jun 14 $134 −$127 -95%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li Jun 14 $32 +$19 +60%
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Antonia Rivera Jun 13 $10 −$5 -54%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $12 +$22 +178%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$6 -26%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $51 +$52 +103%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $170 −$97 -57%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -97%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $12 −$3 -24%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $50 −$49 -99%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $50 −$46 -92%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Lucie Havlickova vs Caijsa Hennemann Jun 12 $62 −$44 -70%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $51 +$36 +72%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $25 +$13 +49%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $33 −$33 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Sofiia Bielinska vs Lan Mi Jun 12 $58 +$53 +91%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang Jun 12 $50 +$23 +47%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $30 +$7 +22%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $31 +$70 +230%
ITF Wichita: Blake Ellis vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 11 $23 −$22 -92%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $30 $0 -1%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $40 +$14 +34%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $35 −$34 -98%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 11 $40 −$40 -99%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 11 $30 −$1 -4%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $73 −$35 -48%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $99 +$15 +15%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Carolina Alves 54¢ $11 1h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lucia Bronzetti 28¢ $11 1h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 23¢ $10 3h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 23¢ $8 3h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt SELL Mattia Bellucci 97¢ $23 6h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Lucciana Perez Alarcon 62¢ $15 6h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 32¢ $4 7h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 42¢ $10 7h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 67¢ $10 9h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Katie Volynets 99¢ $11 9h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 65¢ $7 9h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Stefano D'agostino SELL Sean Cuenin 51¢ $14 11h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 38¢ $17 11h
ITF Madrid: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Briyana Ivanova SELL Ruth Roura Llaverias 46¢ $0 11h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Stefano D'agostino BUY Sean Cuenin 62¢ $17 11h
ITF Madrid: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Briyana Ivanova SELL Ruth Roura Llaverias 48¢ $8 11h
ITF Madrid: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Briyana Ivanova BUY Ruth Roura Llaverias 58¢ $10 11h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Alexander Shevchenko 69¢ $10 11h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova SELL Barbora Krejcikova 50¢ $79 11h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Barbora Krejcikova 51¢ $83 12h
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp SELL Sandro Kopp $5 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $20 12h
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 48¢ $51 13h
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 51¢ $20 13h
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 57¢ $30 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.88 · official $9.88 (match) · 3500 history records