Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x870a…1972 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+5%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +28.4% +16.2% 50% 50% -30.3%
≤30d 8 +28.4% +16.2% 50% 50% -30.3%
≤90d 8 +28.4% +16.2% 50% 50% -30.3%
all 8 +28.4% +16.2% 50% 50% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.2% 50% -30.3%
10% ← realistic here +5.0% 38% -36.9%
15% -5.1% 25% -43.0%
20% -14.4% 25% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$90 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $237 −$79 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $82 +$77 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $157 −$130 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$105 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records