Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
87 0x8709…7d3d sports 461 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,233 (-4%) realized −$2,312 · open +$79
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%234W / 226L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$247est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$576
7 days+$1,239
14 days+$1,239
30 days+$768
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$400
other 37% −$1,676
world 0% +$23
crypto 0% +$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +25.4% +13.5% 58% 58% +10.6%
≤30d 45 +11.7% +1.1% 51% 51% +1.5%
≤90d 262 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 48% -16.6%
all 460 -3.7% -12.9% 51% 51% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 51% -12.3%
10% -21.2% 50% -20.7%
15% -28.8% 48% -28.4%
20% -35.8% 43% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$118 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized−$2,312
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses234 / 226
Est. fees paid−$247
Open positions1
Markets (closed)460 / 461
History coverage118d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 51¢ 80¢ $137 $216 +$79 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$93 +91%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $189 +$128 +68%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $152 +$177 +116%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$136 +134%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $200 +$308 +154%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $202 −$5 -2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$215 +106%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $203 −$12 -6%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $163 −$163 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $41 −$7 -17%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 15 $160 +$115 +72%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $102 +$152 +149%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $145 +$95 +66%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$67 +66%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $222 +$88 +40%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $106 +$104 +99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $142 −$140 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $123 +$127 +103%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $152 +$123 +81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $198 −$195 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $152 +$163 +107%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$10 -10%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $150 −$148 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $264 +$288 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $126 +$135 +107%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $86 +$141 +164%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $84 +$94 +112%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $172 +$118 +68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $120 +$52 +43%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 03 $120 −$118 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 May 27 $72 −$71 -99%
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. Independiente Medellín: Both Teams to Scor May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $95 +$78 +82%
CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to Score May 26 $120 −$25 -21%
Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $120 −$117 -98%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 May 23 $120 −$118 -99%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $120 −$118 -99%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $202 −$200 -99%
Randers FC vs. Odense BK: Both Teams to Score May 11 $140 +$79 +57%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 11 $122 +$93 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $139 13m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $194 29m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 42m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 82¢ $317 44m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $330 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $189 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $152 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $203 11h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 91¢ $507 21h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $200 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 59¢ $198 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $102 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $202 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL 96¢ $418 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 46¢ $203 31h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 41¢ $192 31h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $203 33h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay $0 45h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $102 47h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $163 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $203 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $34 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 23¢ $41 2d
O/U 3.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $275 2d
O/U 3.5 Rounds BUY Under 57¢ $160 2d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $254 2d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 2d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $240 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 88¢ $169 2d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $145 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.25 · official $218.93 · 931 history records