trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $40 | $40 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 21? | May 21 | $45 | +$3 | +7% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 14? | May 14 | $43 | +$3 | +8% |
| Nets vs. Pistons | Apr 25 | $34 | −$34 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 6? | Apr 11 | $65 | +$3 | +5% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 23? | Apr 06 | $59 | +$7 | +12% |
| 76ers vs. Nuggets | Mar 23 | $58 | +$1 | +1% |
| Warriors vs. Knicks | Mar 16 | $301 | +$57 | +19% |
| Pacers vs. Bucks | Mar 15 | $201 | +$82 | +41% |
| Timberwolves vs. Thunder | Mar 15 | $201 | +$56 | +28% |
| Celtics vs. Warriors | Feb 20 | $1,000 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on Feb | Feb 20 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 17? | Feb 20 | $12 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 14? | Feb 17 | $12 | +$1 | +9% |
| Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Feb 03 | $14 | −$12 | -86% |
| Infinex FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Feb 01 | $14 | +$1 | +5% |
| Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Jan 30 | $12 | +$2 | +12% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +7.4% | -2.8% | 100% | 0% | -2.8% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +2.3% | -7.5% | 89% | 44% | +6.5% |
| all | 16 | -1.6% | -11.0% | 88% | 31% | -2.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.0% | 31% | -2.1% |
| 10% | -19.5% | 12% | -11.4% |
| 15% | -27.3% | 6% | -20.0% |
| 20% | -34.4% | 0% | -27.8% |