trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 | Over | 95¢ | 95¢ | $40 | $40 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $13 | $13 | −$1 (-4%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-9%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-12%) |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-18%) |
| Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 | Over | 93¢ | 92¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-1%) |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 | Jun 14 | $35 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 13 | $3 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$3 | -57% |
| Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | -5% |
| Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 | Jun 13 | $5 | +$1 | +11% |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 | Jun 13 | $10 | −$5 | -51% |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 | Jun 13 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $2 | +$2 | +94% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 | Jun 11 | $20 | +$5 | +25% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 11 | $9 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Mar 01 | $50 | +$176 | +352% |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | Feb 06 | $18 | −$17 | -96% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 28 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 16 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 38% | 19% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 17 | -5.3% | -14.3% | 35% | 18% | -16.0% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -5.3% | -14.3% | 35% | 18% | -16.0% |
| all | 20 | +3.1% | -6.7% | 35% | 20% | +44.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.7% | 20% | +44.4% |
| 10% | -15.6% | 15% | +30.6% |
| 15% | -23.8% | 10% | +18.0% |
| 20% | -31.3% | 10% | +6.4% |