Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x8706…0587 world 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,541 (+4%) realized +$1,541 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate57%129W / 96L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days+$267
14 days+$212
30 days+$476
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$2,245
other 9% −$438
politics 6% +$443
sports 2% +$132
tech 2% −$404
crypto 1% −$75
economics 0% −$25
culture 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -2.5% -11.8% 65% 15% -6.8%
≤30d 43 +1.2% -8.5% 63% 30% -7.4%
≤90d 73 +2.8% -7.0% 59% 34% -4.5%
all 225 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 42% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 42% -5.4%
10% -16.4% 30% -14.4%
15% -24.4% 16% -22.7%
20% -31.9% 12% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$51 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,541
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses129 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)225 / 226
History coverage396d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 225 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $100 −$3 -4%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $470 −$7 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $285 +$25 +9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $876 +$54 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $152 −$120 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,157 +$86 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $483 +$18 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $489 +$7 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $534 −$53 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $1,246 −$4 -0%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 12 $134 +$2 +2%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 12 $170 +$12 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $402 +$114 +28%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $559 +$94 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $623 +$187 +30%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $235 +$9 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $129 −$54 -42%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $310 +$26 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $333 −$131 -39%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 10 $288 +$5 +2%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 08 $14 −$4 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $556 +$117 +21%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 07 $18 −$9 -51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $1,711 −$158 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $545 +$245 +45%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $833 +$267 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $534 −$509 -95%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 29 $815 +$12 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $898 −$230 -26%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 28 $1,054 −$47 -4%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $452 +$26 +6%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $340 −$153 -45%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 25 $555 +$92 +16%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $160 +$24 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $203 +$119 +59%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 24 $233 −$16 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $433 +$36 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $62 +$9 +14%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $315 −$19 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $192 +$207 +108%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $315 +$99 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $990 +$58 +6%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 20 $397 +$44 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 17 $1,102 +$207 +19%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 17 $253 +$1 +0%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? May 16 $144 +$51 +35%
Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade? May 15 $104 −$25 -24%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? May 15 $98 −$41 -42%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $50 +$12 +24%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026? May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 47¢ $61 52m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 48¢ $3 52m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 50¢ $8 54m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 50¢ $8 54m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 50¢ $8 54m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 52¢ $10 57m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 66¢ $355 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 65¢ $107 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 50¢ $100 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 67¢ $34 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 67¢ $336 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 67¢ $100 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $310 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 57¢ $285 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $734 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $196 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 38h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL No $32 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $841 45h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $152 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $392 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $48 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $64 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $444 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $446 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $473 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No $11 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No $30 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 92¢ $496 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1246 history records