Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
86 0x86fe…52f6 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+4%) realized +$106 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%30W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 176d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$90
other 24% −$49
world 16% +$23
sports 8% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -5.8% -14.8% 64% 55% -5.4%
≤30d 42 -5.8% -14.8% 64% 55% -5.4%
≤90d 42 -5.8% -14.8% 64% 55% -5.4%
all 45 -1.3% -10.7% 67% 58% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 58% -5.0%
10% -19.2% 42% -14.1%
15% -27.0% 27% -22.4%
20% -34.2% 11% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$106
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses30 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage176d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 68¢ 30¢ $100 $43 −$57 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$38 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$16 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $42 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $44 +$4 +9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $216 +$23 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$33 +309%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$26 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +38%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $220 +$8 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Dec 28 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Dec 28 $6 +$3 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Dec 28 $1 $0 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $142 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 53m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 68¢ $101 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.38 · official $43.38 (match) · 120 history records