Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
86 0x86fe…025c crypto 827 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 194d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,708 (-1%) realized −$1,715 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate66%548W / 278L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$83
30 days−$531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$1,381
sports 34% +$1,432
other 11% +$185
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$30
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.1% -12.4% 80% 40% -19.7%
≤30d 83 -3.7% -12.8% 63% 49% -23.8%
≤90d 83 -3.7% -12.8% 63% 49% -23.8%
all 826 +0.2% -9.3% 66% 39% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 39% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 19% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 10% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$46 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$1,715
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses548 / 278
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)826 / 827
History coverage195d ⚠
Avg bet$166
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 826 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Down 85¢ 96¢ $56 $63 +$7 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$25 -70%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong Jun 07 $114 −$6 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 07 $6 +$2 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8PM ET Jun 07 $27 −$16 -60%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 07 $35 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8PM ET Jun 07 $27 −$16 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 07 $24 +$3 +12%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Aoi Ito Jun 07 $25 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $11 +$10 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 06 $9 +$3 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $36 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 06 $38 −$29 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $33 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $120 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $33 −$7 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 29 $82 −$59 -73%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 29 $25 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET May 29 $73 +$15 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET May 29 $33 −$19 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET May 29 $26 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 29 $151 −$102 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 29 $31 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 29 $25 −$18 -71%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 29 $128 −$9 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 29 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 29 $26 −$23 -90%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 29 $51 −$46 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 29 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 29 $26 +$6 +23%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 29 $76 +$14 +18%
Chisinau: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Luca Nardi May 29 $51 −$3 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 29 $26 +$17 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 29 $19 −$13 -67%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 29 $304 +$54 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 21 $8 +$5 +60%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 21 $23 −$5 -22%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 21 $11 +$2 +16%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 20 $8 +$4 +52%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $6 +$1 +19%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 20 $13 −$7 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 85¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $38 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $39 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $49 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 77¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 77¢ $59 2h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 77¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 79¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 76¢ $61 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $5 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $22 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $14 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.03 · official $63.03 (match) · 3500 history records