Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:15:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
86 0x86fe…60e6 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$480 (+9%) realized +$481 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate63%38W / 22L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$100
14 days−$70
30 days+$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$257
sports 36% +$658
crypto 16% +$30
tech 2% +$31
world 1% −$50
politics 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +67.6% +51.7% 44% 44% -20.6%
≤30d 26 +41.7% +28.2% 50% 42% +0.8%
≤90d 26 +41.7% +28.2% 50% 42% +0.8%
all 60 +18.4% +7.1% 63% 45% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 45% -2.3%
10% -3.1% 35% -11.6%
15% -12.5% 33% -20.1%
20% -21.1% 27% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$49 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$481
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses38 / 22
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage620d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$26 +258%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$69 +675%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$7 +13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $75 −$7 -10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$89 +87%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$67 +650%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $31 −$8 -27%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $1,214 +$477 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 24 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 24 $207 −$94 -45%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026? Jan 26 $100 +$11 +11%
Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jan 26 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil Jan 10 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Jan 10 $182 +$12 +7%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 06 $650 +$143 +22%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 30? Dec 30 $20 −$17 -86%
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Dec 27 $50 +$29 +58%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 27 $100 +$31 +30%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 12 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 01 $136 +$12 +9%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 14 $20 +$16 +83%
Rockets vs. Bucks Nov 10 $30 +$18 +61%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $122 −$62 -51%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Nov 06 $30 +$24 +78%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $50 +$18 +37%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $50 +$26 +52%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $20 +$12 +59%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 26 $70 +$10 +14%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $20 +$11 +54%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 46h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $25 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $50 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $68 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $190 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $61 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $75 11d
Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $50 11d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $23 11d
Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $30 24d
Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.90 · official $49.63 (match) · 144 history records