trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +8.0% | -2.3% | 67% | 67% | -2.2% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +8.6% | -1.7% | 80% | 60% | -0.1% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +8.6% | -1.7% | 80% | 60% | -0.1% |
| all | 5 | +8.6% | -1.7% | 80% | 60% | -0.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.7% | 60% | -0.1% |
| 10% | -11.1% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 15% | -19.7% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 20% | -27.6% | 0% | -26.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 88¢ | 99¢ | $770 | $872 | +$101 (+13%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 90¢ | 98¢ | $617 | $677 | +$60 (+10%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? | Yes | 84¢ | 85¢ | $253 | $255 | +$2 (+1%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? | Yes | 71¢ | 74¢ | $71 | $73 | +$2 (+4%) |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 98¢ | $9 | $10 | +$1 (+7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? | Jun 26 | $198 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | Jun 24 | $225 | +$25 | +11% |
| Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? | Jun 22 | $199 | +$26 | +13% |
| Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | Jun 19 | $342 | +$58 | +17% |
| Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | Jun 19 | $98 | +$2 | +2% |