Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86fc…1e20 world 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%46W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$13
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$42
other 24% +$7
sports 17% $0
politics 14% +$1
economics 13% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 6% -11.3%
≤90d 53 -1.9% -11.2% 38% 4% -9.9%
all 124 -1.4% -10.8% 37% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 2% -9.9%
10% -19.3% 1% -18.5%
15% -27.1% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses46 / 78
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage454d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $73 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $56 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $108 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $56 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $62 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $60 +$2 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $17 +$7 +43%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 +$3 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $45 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $84 −$45 -53%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $199 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $183 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $98 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $49 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $189 +$5 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $92 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $84 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $100 −$18 -18%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $205 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $191 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $381 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $296 −$1 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $106 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $190 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $110 −$1 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $95 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $104 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $6 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $143 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1,712 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $65 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $245 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $1,382 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $29 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $43 33h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $13 33h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $56 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $57 47h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $56 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $62 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $62 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $62 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $62 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $40 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $44 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $62 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $60 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $55 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $54 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $54 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $54 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 7d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $20 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $4 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $0.00 (match) · 456 history records