Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86fc…55cc sports 215 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate61%131W / 83L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$320
14 days−$442
30 days−$442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$136
other 25% +$60
crypto 12% −$416
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -19.1% -26.8% 47% 35% -28.9%
≤30d 119 -11.7% -20.1% 53% 38% -20.7%
≤90d 214 -5.6% -14.6% 61% 40% -11.0%
all 214 -5.6% -14.6% 61% 40% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 40% -11.0%
10% -22.8% 32% -19.5%
15% -30.2% 22% -27.3%
20% -37.1% 16% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$39 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses131 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions1
Markets (closed)214 / 215
History coverage90d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $33 +$15 +45%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$12 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $43 −$42 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $27 +$16 +61%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $42 −$16 -37%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $19 +$23 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $33 +$23 +68%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $16 +$18 +110%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 21 $27 −$27 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$1 +4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 −$25 -49%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 21 $52 −$1 -2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $38 +$14 +37%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$11 +226%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $33 +$23 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $9 +$5 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$5 +30%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $11 +$6 +50%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $14 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +30%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $22 −$19 -86%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $19 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Irvine: Vignesh Gogineni vs Bryce Nakashima Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $36 +$1 +3%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $20 +$15 +75%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $19 +$2 +9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $9 −$7 -77%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -96%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-3.5) Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $29 +$1 +3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $24 −$23 -97%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$5 +34%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $41 $0 +1%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $55 −$14 -26%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $19 +$36 +184%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $47 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $47 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $33 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $33 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $43 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $43 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $27 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 41¢ $27 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 63¢ $42 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $42 10h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 2.5 BUY Over $19 11h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 36¢ $11 12h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 14¢ $11 12h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 56¢ $45 12h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $33 13h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 65¢ $34 13h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $16 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over $0 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over $0 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over $0 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over $0 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over $0 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 39¢ $27 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $27 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 15h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $26 15h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 17h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 47¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.11 · official $46.11 (match) · 550 history records