Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
86 0x86fb…a9cc other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$58 (+12%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$48
sports 17% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +12.3% +1.6% 77% 62% +3.8%
≤30d 13 +12.3% +1.6% 77% 62% +3.8%
≤90d 14 +11.4% +0.8% 79% 57% +2.5%
all 14 +11.4% +0.8% 79% 57% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 57% +2.5%
10% -8.8% 43% -7.3%
15% -17.6% 29% -16.3%
20% -25.7% 14% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage82d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $105 +$6 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $80 +$17 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $90 +$4 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $70 +$18 +25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $95 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 13h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $80 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 32h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $90 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 6d
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $44 82d
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 82d
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $49 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records