Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86fb…03d4 sports 768 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (218 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$72,405 (+18%) realized +$72,427 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%382W / 365L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$523per market
Trades / day218.1pace
Fees−$4,531est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$4,347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$22,345
other 13% +$3,730
crypto 11% −$5,262
world 1% +$542
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (218 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 201 -13.3% -21.5% 49% 46% -16.5%
≤30d 747 +1.2% -8.5% 51% 49% -14.8%
≤90d 747 +1.2% -8.5% 51% 49% -14.8%
all 747 +1.2% -8.5% 51% 49% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover218.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 49% -14.8%
10% -17.2% 41% -23.0%
15% ← realistic here -25.2% 31% -30.4%
20% -32.6% 24% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$558) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$369 vs −$450 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$4,347
Realized+$72,427
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses382 / 365
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$4,531
Open positions33
Markets (closed)747 / 768
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$523
Trades / day218.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 747 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ 62¢ $1,500 $1,488 −$12 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 72¢ 74¢ $425 $434 +$9 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 56¢ 58¢ $372 $390 +$18 (+5%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 83¢ 84¢ $282 $283 +$2 (+1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 83¢ 84¢ $218 $219 +$1 (+0%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 86¢ 86¢ $143 $144 +$1 (+1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 75¢ 76¢ $135 $137 +$3 (+2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $135 $121 −$14 (-10%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? No 73¢ 74¢ $107 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? No 86¢ 90¢ $85 $89 +$3 (+4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 35¢ 38¢ $68 $75 +$7 (+10%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 62¢ 62¢ $73 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 68¢ 70¢ $69 $72 +$3 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $75 $71 −$4 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? No 86¢ 84¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 81¢ 76¢ $69 $64 −$5 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? No 34¢ 26¢ $84 $63 −$21 (-25%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 40¢ 42¢ $52 $55 +$3 (+6%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 81¢ 80¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 63¢ 66¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 48¢ $37 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 48¢ 46¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 37¢ 26¢ $49 $34 −$14 (-30%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes $26 $29 +$4 (+14%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes $25 $26 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $1,019 +$1,759 +172%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $6,082 +$5,070 +83%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $1,014 +$909 +90%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $1,272 −$1,272 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1,019 −$1,019 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $225 −$225 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $2,524 −$2,524 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $33 +$15 +46%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $2,544 +$3,575 +140%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1,524 −$1,524 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $2,231 +$2,361 +106%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $4,577 −$4,577 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $1,016 +$1,206 +119%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $1,776 −$1,776 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $37 +$30 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,085 +$12,340 +243%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $891 +$767 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $3,309 −$3,309 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $2,025 −$2,025 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1,271 +$1,636 +129%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 12 $541 −$7 -1%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,273 −$262 -21%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $2,544 −$2,544 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1,500 +$1,561 +104%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,430 −$53 -4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1,746 +$747 +43%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1,767 +$703 +40%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $201 −$201 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $487 −$487 -100%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $1,485 −$1,485 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $703 −$703 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $278 +$212 +76%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $16 +$16 +101%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $53 +$26 +50%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 11 $22 +$12 +56%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $665 +$132 +20%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $277 −$277 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $723 +$132 +18%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2,543 −$2,543 -100%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $243 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $9 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $1,262 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 47¢ $2,032 7h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $1,019 9h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 40¢ $1,272 19h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 43¢ $1,017 19h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $1,014 19h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $4,050 19h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 53¢ $1,014 35h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 44¢ $1,017 35h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $1,019 35h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 33¢ $185 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 33¢ $23 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 33¢ $16 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 33¢ $16 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 33¢ $2 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 33¢ $0 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 33¢ $30 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 33¢ $545 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 32¢ $180 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $1,523 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $509 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $2 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $2 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $108 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $1 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $1 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $250 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,346.97 · official $4,346.97 (match) · 3500 history records