Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86f3…7787 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$137 (-15%) realized −$132 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$1
crypto 34% +$177
sports 21% −$4
world 11% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +81.3% +64.1% 33% 33% +232.5%
≤30d 14 -28.9% -35.7% 14% 14% +33.7%
≤90d 14 -28.9% -35.7% 14% 14% +33.7%
all 14 -28.9% -35.7% 14% 14% +33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 14% +33.7%
10% -41.8% 14% +21.0%
15% -47.5% 14% +9.3%
20% -52.6% 14% -1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +48% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$16 · ×11.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$335
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $190 $186 −$4 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$352 +444%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $80 −$75 -94%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $100 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$11 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $143 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $144 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $14 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $431 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 7d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $99 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.04 · official $335.04 (match) · 82 history records