Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86ee…511f sports 863 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,320 (-6%) realized −$3,291 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%335W / 523L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day45.4pace
Fees−$622est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days+$131
14 days−$445
30 days−$2,736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$2,326
world 22% −$1,514
other 9% −$94
politics 4% −$67
finance 1% −$71
tech 1% −$9
crypto 1% −$54
culture 0% −$8
economics 0% −$30
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +5.6% -4.5% 43% 36% -5.5%
≤30d 240 -8.7% -17.4% 35% 32% -19.0%
≤90d 858 -7.5% -16.3% 39% 31% -16.1%
all 858 -7.5% -16.3% 39% 31% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 31% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 28% -24.1%
15% -31.6% 26% -31.5%
20% -38.3% 23% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$32 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$3,291
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses335 / 523
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$622
Open positions5
Markets (closed)858 / 863
History coverage60d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day45.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 858 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $94 $45 −$49 (-52%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $48 $44 −$5 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 100¢ $3 $33 +$29 (+842%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 82¢ 65¢ $29 $23 −$6 (-21%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 31¢ 72¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+134%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $109 +$7 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 17 $284 −$10 -4%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $186 −$5 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $127 +$88 +69%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 16 $72 +$11 +15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $16 +$7 +44%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $66 +$57 +86%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $62 +$77 +124%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $8 +$9 +114%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $237 −$15 -6%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $55 +$56 +101%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $24 +$22 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $76 +$74 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $76 +$65 +86%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $26 −$26 -99%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $44 −$1 -3%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $21 −$20 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +105%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $23 +$24 +105%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $76 +$71 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 12 $76 −$75 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $43 −$26 -60%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $56 +$45 +80%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 11 $0 $0 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 11 $76 +$7 +9%
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $50 −$2 -4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $100 −$11 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $117 −$17 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $174 −$3 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $52 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $68 +$22 +33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $15 −$1 -5%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Jun 10 $109 −$4 -4%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $50 −$49 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $48 −$3 -7%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $50 −$3 -5%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $21 +$20 +97%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 10 $45 −$1 -2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $76 −$75 -98%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Jun 09 $156 −$3 -2%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $497 −$9 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 92¢ $5 46m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 82¢ $29 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 65¢ $4 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 27¢ $13 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 58¢ $13 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 39¢ $31 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $65 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 32¢ $13 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 33¢ $10 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 56¢ $39 7h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $98 14h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 16h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $63 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 69¢ $23 18h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $65 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 63¢ $21 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 47¢ $24 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 51¢ $26 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 19h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 26¢ $0 22h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 26¢ $45 22h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 24h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $33 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $48 29h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 27¢ $60 31h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 31¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.52 · official $147.52 (match) · 3282 history records