Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86eb…794c world 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%19W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$2
other 20% $0
politics 16% −$2
sports 16% −$24
economics 5% $0
weather 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 75% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 21 -5.4% -14.5% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 56 -5.2% -14.2% 32% 0% -9.4%
all 58 -4.8% -13.8% 33% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 2% -10.0%
10% -22.1% 2% -18.6%
15% -29.6% 2% -26.5%
20% -36.5% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses19 / 39
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage484d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 68¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $32 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $28 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $136 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $94 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $2 −$1 -28%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $29 +$3 +10%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $31 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $24 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $29 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $3 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 10 $2 −$1 -59%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 08 $1 $0 -14%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $57 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $105 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $57 +$1 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 09 $31 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Mar 31 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $35 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $3 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $20 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $12 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $26 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $27 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $23 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $5 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $35 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $35 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $32 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $32 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.80 · official $0.00 (match) · 212 history records