Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86eb…5864 other 281 markets active 2h ago coverage 401d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$215 (-1%) realized −$82 · open −$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate70%148W / 64L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$231
7 days+$231
14 days+$231
30 days+$656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$63
other 11% −$199
world 7% −$147
sports 6% −$50
tech 5% +$205
finance 4% +$53
politics 2% −$108
economics 2% +$81
culture 1% +$16
weather 0% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +34.0% +21.2% 100% 100% +20.8%
≤30d 50 +23.4% +11.7% 84% 76% +11.0%
≤90d 103 -9.2% -17.9% 64% 53% -7.2%
all 212 -8.9% -17.5% 70% 35% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 35% -9.8%
10% -25.4% 23% -18.4%
15% -32.6% 16% -26.3%
20% -39.2% 11% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$19 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

401d coverage
Net worth$2,197
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$133
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses148 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions69
Markets (closed)212 / 281
History coverage401d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 69 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 86¢ 90¢ $171 $180 +$8 (+5%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 59¢ 55¢ $118 $109 −$9 (-8%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 52¢ 50¢ $104 $101 −$3 (-3%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 68¢ 83¢ $68 $83 +$15 (+22%)
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No 66¢ 80¢ $66 $79 +$13 (+20%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $76 $78 +$2 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 57¢ 68¢ $57 $68 +$10 (+18%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 72¢ 65¢ $72 $65 −$7 (-10%)
Blue wave in 2026? No 26¢ 27¢ $62 $65 +$3 (+4%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 79¢ 63¢ $79 $63 −$17 (-21%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $70 $62 −$8 (-11%)
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $53 $55 +$2 (+4%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 49¢ 48¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $55 $48 −$8 (-14%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 93¢ $43 $47 +$4 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 89¢ 93¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+4%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $38 $44 +$6 (+16%)
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? Yes 83¢ 51¢ $71 $44 −$28 (-39%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 90¢ 85¢ $45 $42 −$2 (-5%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 26¢ 84¢ $13 $42 +$29 (+225%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Yes 35¢ 20¢ $70 $41 −$29 (-41%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 63¢ 76¢ $32 $38 +$7 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 20 $154 +$33 +22%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 20 $32 +$18 +54%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $52 +$10 +20%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +30%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $304 in June? Jun 18 $32 +$18 +54%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 18 $42 +$8 +19%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 18 $88 +$12 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 18 $140 +$60 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $132 +$68 +52%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $42 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $132 +$30 +23%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $162 +$16 +10%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $157 +$31 +20%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 04 $168 +$25 +15%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.75B and $4 Jun 04 $18 +$2 +14%
Critical Discord Incident by May 31? Jun 02 $16 +$4 +24%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will voter turnout be between 90% and 95% in the 2026 Maltese general Jun 01 $17 +$3 +19%
Will Momentum win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives Jun 01 $6 +$14 +233%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? Jun 01 $34 +$6 +16%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $29 +$11 +39%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $21 +$19 +89%
Will "Scary Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $34 −$34 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? Jun 01 $37 +$13 +35%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May? Jun 01 $20 +$29 +144%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? Jun 01 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 in May? Jun 01 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? Jun 01 $42 +$8 +19%
Canada recession before 2027? Jun 01 $40 +$60 +150%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? Jun 01 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? Jun 01 $12 +$8 +64%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 27 $70 −$9 -13%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 26 $32 +$16 +52%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May? May 26 $32 +$17 +53%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 26 $164 +$19 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 26 $178 +$10 +6%
Will AutoZone (AZO) beat quarterly earnings? May 26 $13 +$7 +56%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $175 in May? May 25 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24) May 25 $32 +$17 +52%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 25 $128 +$51 +40%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May? May 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 25 $178 +$18 +10%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? May 25 $8 +$4 +45%
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 25 $16 +$4 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 25 $30 +$20 +70%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 25 $86 +$114 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $187 2h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 53¢ $53 9h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 11h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 11h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 72¢ $72 14h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY No 19¢ $1 15h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY No 19¢ $1 16h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 86¢ $171 19h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $12 20h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 59¢ $0 20h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 20h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 20h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 90¢ $45 21h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 22h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 22h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 22h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 22h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 22h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 22h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 22h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 22h
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $43 23h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 72¢ $36 23h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 52¢ $78 24h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $5 24h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 24h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 24h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $25 25h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $1 25h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $6 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,197.04 · official $2,196.41 (match) · 816 history records