Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:33:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x86e9…dade
other · 12 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$69 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$61 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$134
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 1 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $142 $134 −$9 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $88 −$3 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$76 -75%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $109 +$14 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $109 −$4 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $84 +$21 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 −$13 -13%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $81 +$26 +32%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $218 −$31 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% −$31
politics 19% −$31
sports 17% −$4
world 9% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $86 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $86 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $60 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 22¢ $23 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 90¢ $121 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $116 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 27h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 72¢ $105 42h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY No 74¢ $109 42h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 19¢ $2 43h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 18¢ $2 43h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 36¢ $102 43h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 28¢ $51 43h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 27¢ $31 43h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 45¢ $88 43h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 50¢ $101 45h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 1¢ $0 45h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 39¢ $10 47h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 4¢ $1 2d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 9¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 75¢ $81 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -16.6% -24.5% 36% 36% -15.0%
≤30d 11 -16.6% -24.5% 36% 36% -15.0%
≤90d 11 -16.6% -24.5% 36% 36% -15.0%
all 11 -16.6% -24.5% 36% 36% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 36% -15.0%
10% -31.7% 18% -23.1%
15% -38.3% 0% -30.5%
20% -44.4% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.56 · official $133.56 (match) · 37 history records