Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x86e9…4cdf
sports · 233 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$677,977 -62%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$678,173 · open +$1,720
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$112,112
Realized−$678,173
Unrealized+$1,720
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses98 / 255
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$12,879
Open positions62
Markets (closed)353 / 233
Avg bet$4,693
Trades / day358.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 62 History 353 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$554,721
7 days−$531,041
14 days−$678,173
30 days−$678,173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $10,394 $17,726 +$7,332 (+71%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 54¢ 49¢ $16,640 $14,992 −$1,647 (-10%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $7,920 $7,810 −$110 (-1%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Knicks 52¢ 52¢ $7,800 $7,725 −$75 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 65¢ 84¢ $5,200 $6,760 +$1,560 (+30%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 83¢ 79¢ $6,629 $6,310 −$319 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 58¢ 69¢ $4,640 $5,559 +$919 (+20%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $4,739 $5,289 +$550 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Virtus.pro 59¢ 48¢ $4,726 $3,893 −$833 (-18%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 54¢ 56¢ $3,559 $3,658 +$99 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 56¢ 56¢ $3,640 $3,608 −$32 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 41¢ 55¢ $1,875 $2,471 +$596 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $2,383 $2,270 −$113 (-5%)
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 75¢ 52¢ $2,706 $1,905 −$801 (-30%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1,674 $1,728 +$54 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 24¢ 38¢ $1,017 $1,660 +$643 (+63%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1,577 $1,564 −$13 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $1,721 $1,531 −$190 (-11%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1,532 $1,517 −$15 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? No 55¢ 20¢ $3,029 $1,122 −$1,908 (-63%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 75¢ 75¢ $1,107 $1,107 +$1 (+0%)
Will Aurora qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $1,009 $1,037 +$28 (+3%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $949 $997 +$47 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 66¢ 68¢ $878 $898 +$20 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 46¢ $1,129 $853 −$277 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 12 $138 −$138 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 12 $1,230 −$1,230 -100%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) Jun 12 $1,286 −$1,286 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? Jun 12 $144 −$144 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 12 $385 −$385 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 12 $2,540 −$2,540 -100%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 12 $2,434 −$2,434 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 12 $1,337 −$1,337 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Geneva Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 12 $1,961 −$1,961 -100%
Mirra Andreeva vs. Sorana Cirstea: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $289 −$289 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) Jun 12 $1,067 −$1,067 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 104.5 Jun 12 $520 −$520 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 12 $7,466 −$7,466 -100%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) Jun 12 $117 −$117 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 12 $3,334 −$3,334 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $490 −$490 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina Jun 12 $3,408 −$3,408 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 12 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3,642 −$3,642 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla Jun 12 $10,984 −$10,984 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $15,639 −$15,639 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 12 $5,023 −$5,023 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Atreides (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Jun 12 $249 −$249 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 12 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $2,050 −$2,050 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 12 $7,737 −$7,737 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 12 $4,931 −$4,931 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $1,052 −$1,052 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Jun 12 $3,305 −$3,305 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 Jun 12 $1,722 −$1,722 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $700 −$700 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 Jun 12 $336 −$336 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) Jun 12 $2,560 −$2,560 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 12 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? Jun 12 $1,667 −$1,667 -100%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 12 $2,638 −$2,638 -100%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $365 −$365 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 12 $3,597 −$3,456 -96%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 12 $1,672 −$1,672 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $600 −$600 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $164 −$164 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,987 −$1,987 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play Jun 12 $7,300 −$7,300 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 12 $277 −$277 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$87,139
other 7% +$25,641
world 5% +$2,480
finance 1% +$2,755
crypto 1% −$12,499
politics 0% −$190
tech 0% +$675
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $29 10m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $39 10m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $20 10m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $16 11m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $6 27m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $7 27m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $13 36m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $98 36m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $20 36m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $13 36m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $17 45m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 54¢ $41 48m
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $553 52m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 54¢ $74 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 54¢ $15 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $2 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $26 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $16 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $17 2h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $25 2h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $16 2h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 65¢ $37 2h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 64¢ $27 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 19¢ $3 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 54¢ $96 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 54¢ $12 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 54¢ $80 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 54¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-46.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 299 -42.2% -47.7% 26% 26% -49.0%
≤30d 353 -41.2% -46.8% 28% 28% -47.9%
≤90d 353 -41.2% -46.8% 28% 28% -47.9%
all 353 -41.2% -46.8% 28% 28% -47.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover358.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.8% 28% -47.9%
10% -51.9% 27% -52.9%
15% ← realistic here -56.5% 26% -57.4%
20% -60.8% 22% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112,111.93 · official $112,157.45 (match) · 3500 history records