Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x86e6…340a
crypto · 10 markets active 1h ago
7.0score
+$42 +33%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$42 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage19d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 0 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 20¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 59¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $24 +$10 +41%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $17 +$6 +35%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$27 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 27 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 25 $12 +$13 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 25 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 24 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 24 $11 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 48% $0
sports 32% +$16
other 20% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +60.9% +45.6% 100% 100% +48.8%
≤30d 10 +3.7% -6.2% 70% 50% +20.6%
≤90d 10 +3.7% -6.2% 70% 50% +20.6%
all 10 +3.7% -6.2% 70% 50% +20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 50% +20.6%
10% -15.2% 50% +9.1%
15% -23.4% 40% -1.4%
20% -30.9% 20% -11.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records