Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:03:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
86 0x86e4…b982 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$227 (+12%) realized +$232 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day81.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$215
world 1% −$6
other 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +7.0% -3.2% 61% 50% +0.7%
≤30d 36 +7.0% -3.2% 61% 50% +0.7%
≤90d 36 +7.0% -3.2% 61% 50% +0.7%
all 36 +7.0% -3.2% 61% 50% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.2% 50% +0.7%
10% ← realistic here -12.5% 36% -9.0%
15% -20.9% 33% -17.8%
20% -28.7% 31% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$40 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$232
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)36 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day81.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 74¢ 68¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? No 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $130 +$34 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$82 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $108 +$62 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $46 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $204 −$152 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $207 +$105 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$149 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$21 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $58 +$147 +255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$19 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $56 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $33 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $162 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $24 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $164 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $171 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $38 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.50 · official $50.50 (match) · 104 history records