Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:14:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86e3…2b9b crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-5%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate59%20W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$10
14 days−$153
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$38
sports 10% −$135
other 5% +$5
world 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.5% +7.2% 50% 33% -3.3%
≤30d 16 -49.2% -54.1% 25% 12% -37.3%
≤90d 18 -42.9% -48.3% 33% 17% -22.6%
all 34 -20.8% -28.3% 59% 15% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 15% -14.1%
10% -35.2% 9% -22.3%
15% -41.4% 9% -29.8%
20% -47.2% 6% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage212d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$25 +50%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 23 $21 −$1 -6%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 +$30 +262%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $12 −$11 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $208 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 16 $208 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? Apr 10 $180 +$28 +16%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Mar 04 $181 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 16 $175 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 19-25? Jan 28 $171 +$4 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 12-18? Jan 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18? Jan 20 $171 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11? Jan 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11? Jan 17 $165 +$2 +1%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jan 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 07 $8 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,700 December 15-21? Jan 07 $154 $0 +0%
Chargers vs. Chiefs Dec 20 $2 +$5 +233%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 8-14? Dec 20 $140 +$1 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Dec 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 12 $101 +$21 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 25? Nov 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 46h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $15 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $31 46h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 23¢ $21 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 46h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 7d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $6 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $8 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $6 9d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 21¢ $20 10d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 34¢ $20 10d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $51 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 10d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $208 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $208 76d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? BUY No 86¢ $180 112d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? BUY No 99¢ $181 129d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 98¢ $175 147d
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 19-25? BUY No 98¢ $171 156d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 12-18? BUY No 99¢ $1 158d
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18? BUY No 100¢ $171 158d
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $4 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.53 · official $39.53 (match) · 59 history records