Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86df…eff8 other 50 markets active 3h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$57 (-8%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate58%23W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$34
crypto 12% −$35
finance 11% +$7
sports 9% −$1
world 6% +$3
economics 5% −$2
politics 5% +$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 7 +2.6% -7.1% 43% 29% -6.7%
≤90d 20 -12.2% -20.6% 40% 30% -17.7%
all 40 -12.4% -20.7% 58% 20% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 20% -20.0%
10% -28.3% 0% -27.7%
15% -35.2% 0% -34.7%
20% -41.6% 0% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)40 / 50
History coverage142d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+20%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 69¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+43%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $9 $0 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 01 $26 +$4 +14%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 15 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 08 $37 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 03 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 26 $16 +$3 +18%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 26 $30 −$12 -38%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Apr 26 $13 −$12 -90%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $28 $0 -0%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Apr 02 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 02 $14 +$1 +11%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $13 $0 -1%
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 25 $25 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 07 $14 $0 +2%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 28 $5 $0 +3%
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 23 $5 $0 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 23 $32 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 21 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16? Feb 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 15 $29 $0 +0%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 12 $4 −$1 -21%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Feb 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 6? Feb 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 3? Feb 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? Feb 05 $5 $0 +2%
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 05 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 05 $10 $0 +0%
Grok memecoin wallet hits $1M before April? Feb 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $25 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $26 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $26 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $27 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $27 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $27 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $2 2h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $8 2h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $8 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $2 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $7 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $9 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $2 9d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 30¢ $2 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $6 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 17d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 17d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 17d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 90¢ $7 17d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 83¢ $9 17d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 92¢ $9 24d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 78¢ $10 24d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 32¢ $2 24d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 86¢ $4 34d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 98¢ $7 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.86 · official $23.82 · 167 history records