Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:28:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
86 0x86de…55c3 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$993 (+15%) realized +$993 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate81%21W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,041
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +15.9% +4.9% 81% 62% +46.8%
≤30d 26 +15.9% +4.9% 81% 62% +46.8%
≤90d 26 +15.9% +4.9% 81% 62% +46.8%
all 26 +15.9% +4.9% 81% 62% +46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.9% 62% +46.8%
10% ← realistic here -5.1% 46% +32.7%
15% -14.3% 23% +19.9%
20% -22.7% 23% +8.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$233 vs −$169 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.79 per $1 lost it wins $5.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$993
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses21 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $1,075 +$365 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $259 −$88 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $38 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $152 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $152 +$42 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $1,030 +$543 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $515 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $518 +$534 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $1,152 +$2,356 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $518 +$482 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $516 +$427 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1,189 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $251 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1,003 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $72 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $153 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $151 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $108 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $38 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $152 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $152 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1,573 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $514 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $515 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $515 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $518 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $524 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $523 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records