Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:08:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x86da…39f5 sports 417 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$338 (+1%) realized +$647 · open −$309
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate64%247W / 139L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$206est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$781now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$182
14 days−$32
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$261
other 6% −$336
crypto 2% +$4
world 1% −$26
politics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -9.3% -17.9% 55% 34% -4.8%
≤30d 131 -6.3% -15.2% 61% 36% -8.7%
≤90d 336 -4.7% -13.7% 65% 36% -9.0%
all 386 -4.1% -13.2% 64% 37% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 37% -9.1%
10% -21.5% 26% -17.8%
15% -29.1% 17% -25.7%
20% -36.0% 10% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$18 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$781
Realized+$647
Unrealized−$309
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses247 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$206
Open positions26
Markets (closed)386 / 417
History coverage599d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 386 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 86¢ 86¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Rwanda 95¢ 26¢ $340 $94 −$246 (-72%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $65 $48 −$17 (-26%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 81¢ 76¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 46¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 72¢ 74¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $30 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Will New Zealand win? No 64¢ 54¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 54¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Olise 59¢ 60¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? Yes 60¢ 59¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 86¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Disney+ Reach 150 million total users by September? No 84¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $10 +$13 +123%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $126 +$13 +10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $7 +$19 +268%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $334 +$183 +55%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the No. 7 Toyota Racing win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $267 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $236 +$14 +6%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -52%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $51 −$3 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +125%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1,102 +$27 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $351 +$26 +8%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman Jun 13 $51 −$30 -60%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 12 $156 −$23 -15%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $15 +$3 +19%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $302 +$71 +24%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $30 −$10 -34%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $20 +$14 +67%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $11 +$3 +31%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: United Arab Emirates vs Malaysia Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $221 +$19 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +46%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 07 $15 −$2 -12%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Oman vs Philippines Jun 07 $300 +$12 +4%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Petr Bar Biryukov Jun 06 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Northampton Saints win? Jun 06 $7 +$3 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 99¢ $200 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 94¢ $100 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 86¢ $100 1h
Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 85¢ $30 2h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 80¢ $10 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL 66¢ $11 13h
Will New Zealand win? BUY No 64¢ $30 19h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 55¢ $10 19h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Arthur Fery 100¢ $23 19h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 60¢ $10 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 95¢ $95 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 2¢ $2 25h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 87¢ $50 25h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 71¢ $30 25h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 59¢ $44 25h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 61¢ $30 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 59¢ $10 26h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $30 26h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 58¢ $15 27h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 27h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $10 27h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Jenson Brooksby 37¢ $10 27h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 44¢ $10 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 41h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 100¢ $427 41h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 47¢ $203 43h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 58¢ $90 43h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 85¢ $1 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $781.12 · official $801.12 · 1186 history records