Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86d3…da78 weather 420 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$197 (+6%) realized +$203 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%166W / 334L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day45.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$94
14 days−$101
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$78
other 2% −$5
sports 1% −$5
world 0% −$3
politics 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -76.1% -78.4% 12% 9% -44.7%
≤30d 206 -54.5% -58.8% 18% 17% -21.0%
≤90d 500 -18.0% -25.8% 33% 26% -7.5%
all 500 -18.0% -25.8% 33% 26% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.8% 26% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.9% 19% -16.4%
15% -39.4% 16% -24.4%
20% -45.3% 14% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$203
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses166 / 334
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)500 / 420
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day45.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 500 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 76¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 44¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 196 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on May 25? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 8? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or below on May 3? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 29? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C or higher on May 27? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C or below on May 28? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or below on May 27? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 27? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 12? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or below on May 24? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 3? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 12? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 28? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 27? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 29? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 21? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on May 12? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C or below on May 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or below on May 8? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or below on May 22? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -166%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 27? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 28? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -336%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 12? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 10? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on May 3? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or below on May 21? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 29? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 27? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on May 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on May 21? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -216%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 27? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 28? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on June 11? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 29? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on May 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 22? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -166%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on May 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on May 27? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or below on May 7? Jun 15 $0 $0 -247%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 21? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 25? Jun 15 $0 −$2 -1373%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or higher on May 22? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? SELL No 14¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 30¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? SELL Yes 65¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 3¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.93 · official $4.93 (match) · 3500 history records