Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

86 0x86d1…25c1 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 606d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$7 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip

Net edge+3%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate40%4W / 6L

Drawdown23%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$179

7 days+$179

14 days+$179

30 days+$179

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)+3.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+125.7%	+104.2%	100%	100%	+117.5%
≤30d	2	+125.7%	+104.2%	100%	100%	+117.5%
≤90d	2	+125.7%	+104.2%	100%	100%	+117.5%
all	10	+14.2%	+3.4%	40%	30%	+32.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.4%	30%	+32.6%
10%	-6.5%	30%	+19.9%
15%	-15.6%	20%	+8.4%
20%	-23.8%	10%	-2.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 81% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +140% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$48 vs −$8 · ×6.3 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.2 per $1 lost it wins $4.2

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage

Net worth$104

Realized+$7

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses4 / 6

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)10 / 12

History coverage606d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown23%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Team Falcons	46¢	44¢	$72	$70	−$2 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	FURIA	59¢	58¢	$35	$35	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	Jun 20	$75	+$155	+206%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$52	+$24	+46%
Will Weibo Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024?	Oct 24	$2	$0	+2%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024?	Oct 24	$31	−$1	-4%
Israel military response against Iran in October?	Oct 24	$25	−$6	-24%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October?	Oct 24	$26	−$4	-15%
Trump wins every swing state?	Oct 24	$16	$0	-3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?	Oct 24	$15	−$1	-5%
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?	Oct 24	$35	+$12	+35%
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?	Oct 23	$35	−$33	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY FURIA	59¢	$35	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	46¢	$73	1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$230	1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	32¢	$75	7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	SELL Spirit	100¢	$76	7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY Spirit	68¢	$52	8h
Will Weibo Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024?	SELL Yes	6¢	$2	603d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024?	SELL Yes	27¢	$29	603d
Israel military response against Iran in October?	SELL Yes	37¢	$19	603d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October?	SELL Yes	41¢	$22	603d
Trump wins every swing state?	SELL No	70¢	$16	603d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?	SELL No	18¢	$14	603d
Trump wins every swing state?	BUY No	72¢	$16	603d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024?	BUY Yes	28¢	$31	603d
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?	SELL No	85¢	$47	603d
Will Weibo Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	604d
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?	SELL No	3¢	$2	604d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October?	BUY Yes	48¢	$26	605d
Israel military response against Iran in October?	BUY Yes	49¢	$25	605d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?	BUY No	19¢	$15	605d
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?	BUY No	52¢	$35	605d
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?	BUY No	63¢	$35	605d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.36 · official $104.36 (match) · 22 history records