Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86cc…f46e weather 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-5%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%2W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% −$26
other 15% −$1
world 10% −$10
politics 9% +$1
culture 5% −$5
finance 4% −$1
crypto 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -4.4% -13.5% 0% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 24 -4.4% -13.5% 0% 0% -13.8%
≤90d 24 -4.4% -13.5% 0% 0% -13.8%
all 42 -7.2% -16.1% 5% 0% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 0% -14.6%
10% -24.1% 0% -22.8%
15% -31.4% 0% -30.2%
20% -38.2% 0% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses2 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage265d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $62 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 23? Jun 22 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $13 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 22? Jun 22 $13 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Jun 22 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? Jun 22 $6 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 −$4 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $0 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $56 −$8 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 17 $8 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $26 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$4 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 22? Mar 19 $37 −$4 -11%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23 Mar 19 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 22? Mar 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on Marc Mar 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar Mar 19 $72 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Mar 19 $27 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March Mar 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 22? Mar 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 22? Mar 19 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 22? Mar 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 22? Mar 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the Mar 19 $47 −$5 -10%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? Mar 19 $7 −$2 -24%
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026? Mar 18 $15 −$7 -45%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Mar 18 $8 $0 -1%
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 18 $29 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8AM ET Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 18 $35 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 23? SELL No 61¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 23? BUY No 61¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 23? SELL No 54¢ $11 35m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 54¢ $11 36m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 42¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? SELL Yes 51¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 51¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 61¢ $60 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 22? SELL Yes 47¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 22? BUY Yes 47¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 61¢ $61 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 62¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 62¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 63¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 63¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 53¢ $26 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 59¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 48¢ $37 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records