Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
86 0x86ca…bc47 sports 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%106W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170
7 days+$339
14 days+$122
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$46
other 10% +$9
weather 0% −$6
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +63.7% +48.1% 70% 60% +28.7%
≤30d 134 -10.9% -19.4% 39% 38% -9.2%
≤90d 141 -14.5% -22.7% 38% 36% -9.4%
all 251 -10.1% -18.6% 42% 41% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 41% -10.4%
10% -26.4% 41% -18.9%
15% -33.5% 41% -26.8%
20% -40.0% 41% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses106 / 145
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions3
Markets (closed)251 / 254
History coverage162d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 50¢ $106 $107 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SPARTA 37¢ 36¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $103 +$127 +123%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $78 −$77 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $124 +$120 +97%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $62 +$117 +188%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $49 +$92 +188%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $68 +$5 +7%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 11 $85 +$79 +93%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $72 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $32 +$76 +239%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $151 −$28 -19%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $63 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HyperSpirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 07 $95 +$64 +67%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $41 +$39 +97%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 07 $65 −$64 -99%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 07 $69 −$6 -8%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Sta Jun 06 $60 +$39 +65%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) Jun 06 $41 +$78 +190%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $55 −$54 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 05 $89 +$65 +73%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 05 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playo Jun 04 $99 −$97 -98%
Map Handicap: TLR (-1.5) vs Entropy (+1.5) Jun 03 $58 −$57 -99%
Heilbronn: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 02 $79 +$76 +96%
Perugia: Francesco Forti vs Reilly Opelka Jun 02 $47 −$2 -3%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $24 −$24 -98%
Map Handicap: QUA (-1.5) vs eternal premium (+1.5) Jun 01 $87 −$86 -99%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou Jun 01 $80 +$74 +93%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Guo/Mladenovic vs Mertens/Zhang May 30 $28 −$28 -99%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs ENCE (+1.5) May 30 $66 +$42 +64%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska May 30 $63 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs AM Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se May 29 $57 +$45 +80%
Map Handicap: RBLS (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) May 29 $60 −$14 -23%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Lilmix (BO3) - European Pro League Ser May 29 $19 −$19 -98%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Pavel Kotov May 28 $5 +$6 +123%
Map Handicap: YN (-1.5) vs WAZABI (+1.5) May 28 $3 $0 -5%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Linette/Starodubtseva vs Jacquemot/Rakoto May 28 $6 −$2 -37%
Tabilo vs. Vacherot: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 28 $5 $0 -3%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Arantxa Rus vs Anastasia Tikhonova May 28 $7 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs WAZABI (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 28 $28 −$1 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $30 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pla May 28 $6 +$6 +109%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 +$6 +119%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ May 27 $5 +$7 +158%
Valorant: Team Evictix vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America May 27 $7 −$7 -99%
Valorant: ROSE vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Le Mans vs. Nanterre May 27 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Thunderp May 27 $7 +$5 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $2 35m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 37¢ $28 38m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $108 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 45¢ $2 17h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 45¢ $7 17h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 45¢ $7 17h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 45¢ $14 17h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 45¢ $14 17h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 45¢ $41 17h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 43¢ $19 17h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 47¢ $78 24h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 50¢ $124 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $49 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $7 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.74 · official $135.70 (match) · 492 history records