Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86c9…8a7d other 144 markets active 1d ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%47W / 96L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$3
other 19% +$3
politics 16% −$1
sports 12% +$12
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 38 +3.9% -6.0% 34% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 83 +0.5% -9.0% 29% 1% -9.5%
all 143 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses47 / 96
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage483d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $183 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $65 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $55 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $326 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $86 +$4 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $188 −$7 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $94 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $19 −$4 -22%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $94 +$1 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $94 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $396 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $94 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $294 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $151 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $188 +$3 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $92 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $103 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $19 −$2 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $15 −$1 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $177 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $168 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $112 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $97 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $107 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $98 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $204 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $58 +$6 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $93 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $103 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $73 −$2 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $91 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $95 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $200 +$1 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 25 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $105 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $106 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 28h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 28h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 28h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 28h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 28h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 28h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 28h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $1 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $4 43h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $5 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $64 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $20 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $93 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.00 (match) · 541 history records