Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x86c8…1fc7
crypto · 744 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,031 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$976 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$99
Realized−$976
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses241 / 502
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)743 / 744
History coverage86d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 743 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$426
7 days+$426
14 days+$341
30 days−$504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 +$137 +68%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $201 +$52 +26%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 +$8 +73%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $86 +$245 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 05 $18 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 05 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 05 $16 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 05 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 05 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 05 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 05 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 05 $60 −$20 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 05 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 05 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 05 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 05 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 04 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 04 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 04 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 04 $8 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 04 $7 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$3 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% −$1,402
sports 6% +$423
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 10m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $202 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 79¢ $201 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 22h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $5 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 11¢ $21 23h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $20 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $22 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $20 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 19¢ $22 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $24 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $16 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $19 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $19 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $14 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $14 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $16 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $17 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $21 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $21 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $19 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +41.8% +28.3% 67% 67% +65.3%
≤30d 421 -36.8% -42.8% 28% 22% -25.9%
≤90d 743 -25.8% -32.9% 32% 23% -19.3%
all 743 -25.8% -32.9% 32% 23% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.9% 23% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -39.3% 18% -27.0%
15% -45.2% 15% -34.1%
20% -50.5% 13% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.09 · official $99.09 (match) · 3500 history records