Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86c8…a09d other 27 markets active 7h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$302 (+29%) realized +$302 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%9W / 18L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$249
7 days+$248
14 days+$217
30 days+$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$262
politics 1% −$1
world 0% −$4
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.3% -8.3% 20% 20% +31.3%
≤30d 27 -7.9% -16.7% 33% 26% +12.5%
≤90d 27 -7.9% -16.7% 33% 26% +12.5%
all 27 -7.9% -16.7% 33% 26% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 26% +12.5%
10% -24.7% 22% +1.7%
15% -31.9% 15% -8.1%
20% -38.6% 11% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$9 · ×5.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$302
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage28d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $25 −$11 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $248 +$333 +134%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $181 −$13 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $86 −$60 -69%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $88 −$16 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$14 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $41 +$16 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $55 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $21 +$5 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $28 −$9 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $12 −$9 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $26 +$7 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $70 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $21 +$42 +202%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $5 +$13 +253%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $9 −$9 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $523 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $47 8h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 8h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 8h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 16h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 16h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $167 24h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 30h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 30h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 40h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 40h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 40h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 41h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 41h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 42h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 42h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 42h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $36 42h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 42h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 42h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 43h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 43h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 43h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $52 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records