Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
86 0x86c8…c867 sports 710 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$151,882 (+24%) realized +$151,029 · open +$853
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate63%445W / 258L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$909per market
Trades / day41.5pace
Fees−$4,934est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$8,534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,063
7 days+$27,045
14 days+$33,591
30 days+$78,232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$84,198
other 14% +$5,317
crypto 0% −$256
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+53.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +89.0% +71.0% 67% 56% +18.6%
≤30d 300 +75.4% +58.7% 65% 54% +12.9%
≤90d 703 +69.9% +53.7% 63% 53% +1.9%
all 703 +69.9% +53.7% 63% 53% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +53.7% 53% +1.9%
10% +39.0% 44% -7.8%
15% ← realistic here +25.6% 37% -16.7%
20% +13.3% 30% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$985) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late +115% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$498 vs −$517 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$8,534
Realized+$151,029
Unrealized+$853
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses445 / 258
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$4,934
Open positions7
Markets (closed)703 / 710
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$909
Trades / day41.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 703 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 48¢ 84¢ $4,800 $8,400 +$3,600 (+75%)
Club Always Ready vs. FC Universitario: O/U 4.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $88 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Panama leading at halftime? No 76¢ 91¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 76¢ 80¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 51¢ $2,636 $3 −$2,633 (-100%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs MODUS $101 $1 −$100 (-99%)
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: RS Berkane 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 51¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $150 −$150 -100%
Fritz vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 21 $316 +$684 +216%
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov Jun 21 $1,484 −$1,484 -100%
ITF Ystad: Lea Nilsson vs Madison Sieg Jun 21 $363 +$953 +262%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Berta Passola Jun 21 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $7,888 +$612 +8%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: UD Almería 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 +$13 +84%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $294 −$294 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $3,209 −$3,209 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1,855 +$971 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $2,494 +$1,506 +60%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $4,974 +$1,470 +30%
Lazarov vs. Marchi: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Lazarov vs. Marchi: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Lazarov vs. Marchi: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Lazarov vs. Marchi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $8 +$12 +165%
Set 1 Winner: Lazarov vs Marchi Jun 20 $10 +$10 +101%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondiol Jun 20 $1,173 +$62 +5%
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Bondioli Jun 20 $7 $0 +3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $163 −$48 -30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $1,011 +$2,409 +238%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $101 +$392 +388%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $86 +$335 +388%
Will Racing 92 win? Jun 19 $1,104 +$396 +36%
Will Leinster win? Jun 19 $388 +$12 +3%
ITF Tauste: Anna Kubareva vs Elena Milovanovic Jun 19 $217 +$899 +414%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $162 −$162 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $161 −$161 -100%
Dart/Lumsden vs. Sutjiadi/Tjen: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $1,219 +$2,040 +167%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Errani/Melichar vs Olmos/Routliff Jun 19 $98 +$2 +2%
Set 2 Winner: Wobker vs Frodin Jun 19 $207 +$41 +20%
Set 2 Winner: Pegula vs Keys Jun 19 $425 +$66 +16%
ITF Blois: Lucie Nguyen Tan vs Despina Papamichail Jun 19 $462 −$462 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 19 $9 +$11 +134%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 +$7 +28%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5,493 +$5,380 +98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $3,059 +$2,743 +90%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $1,156 +$153 +13%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North A Jun 19 $192 +$551 +287%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $1,697 +$313 +18%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer Jun 18 $233 +$221 +95%
Spread: Barcelona (-0.5) Jun 18 $4 +$289 +8196%
Gogineni vs. Nakashima: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $0 +$30 +9612%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2,187 +$2,813 +129%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $995 +$1,005 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MODUS $0 59m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MODUS $5 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MODUS $10 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MODUS $88 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $4,875 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 57¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 57¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $231 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $21 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $14 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2,413 1h
Fritz vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 31¢ $316 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka $150 5h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Berta Passola BUY Berta Passola 58¢ $9 6h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Berta Passola BUY Berta Passola 58¢ $57 6h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Berta Passola BUY Berta Passola 58¢ $3 6h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Berta Passola BUY Berta Passola 58¢ $19 6h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov BUY Andrej Nedic 62¢ $46 6h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov BUY Andrej Nedic 62¢ $12 6h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov BUY Andrej Nedic 62¢ $36 6h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov BUY Andrej Nedic 62¢ $12 6h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov BUY Andrej Nedic 62¢ $12 6h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov BUY Andrej Nedic 62¢ $12 6h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov BUY Andrej Nedic 62¢ $1,352 6h
ITF Ystad: Lea Nilsson vs Madison Sieg BUY Lea Nilsson 27¢ $363 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $292 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $23 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $74 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $13 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $39 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,533.80 · official $9,233.80 · 3500 history records