Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x86c8…547b
crypto · 352 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,934 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,933 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,933
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses138 / 212
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)350 / 352
History coverage126d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 2 History 350 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$301
7 days−$375
14 days−$611
30 days−$1,574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Graham Platner win between 75% and 80% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $80 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $157 −$42 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $94 −$56 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $57 +$22 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $53 +$179 +340%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$14 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$35 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$21 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$16 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$35 -95%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $7 −$5 -68%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $40 −$28 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $37 +$61 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$36 +111%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$21 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$18 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $103 −$79 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$23 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 84% −$1,391
other 13% −$437
sports 2% −$84
world 0% −$20
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $80 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $21 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $20 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $15 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $28 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $42 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $83 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $101 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $93 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -5.8% -14.8% 45% 43% -19.0%
≤30d 260 -14.9% -23.0% 40% 36% -26.0%
≤90d 345 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 37% -26.5%
all 350 -15.8% -23.8% 39% 36% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 36% -27.1%
10% -31.1% 31% -34.1%
15% -37.7% 28% -40.5%
20% -43.8% 23% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 823 history records